I Studied How The Top 1% Make Decisions – Here's What I Discovered

For the past year, I've been quietly studying how the most successful people make decisions.

Not just the obvious choices about their careers or businesses, but the countless micro-decisions that shape their days, relationships, and ultimately, their lives.

I've analyzed interviews, books, and research about top performers across different fields – entrepreneurs, athletes, artists, scientists, and investors. I've had conversations with remarkable individuals who've achieved extraordinary results. And I've experimented with these principles in my own life.

What I discovered surprised me. The top 1% don't just make better decisions – they make decisions differently. Their entire decision-making framework operates on a different level.

Today, I'm sharing the most powerful insights from this study – patterns that have completely transformed my own decision-making process.

The Decision Quality Paradox

Most people believe that successful individuals simply make more good decisions than bad ones.

But that's not what I found.

The truly exceptional don't focus on making more good decisions. Instead, they focus intensely on eliminating bad decisions.

Warren Buffett's longtime business partner Charlie Munger captured this perfectly when he said: "It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent."

This subtle shift – from trying to be brilliant to avoiding obvious mistakes – is the foundation of elite decision-making.

Action Step: For the next week, before making any significant decision, ask yourself: "What are the obvious ways this could go wrong?" This simple question will immediately improve your decision quality.

The Unfair Advantage of Mental Models

The second pattern I discovered was that top performers rely heavily on mental models – frameworks that simplify complex situations and reveal the underlying reality.

Most people make decisions based on:

• What everyone else is doing

• What they've always done before

• What feels emotionally satisfying in the moment

The exceptional use mental models like:

1. Inversion

Instead of asking, "How do I achieve X?" they ask, "What would guarantee I fail to achieve X?" Then they avoid those things.

When building Elevenstoic, I didn't just ask how to grow an audience. I asked what would guarantee I'd never build a meaningful community. Then I systematically avoided those traps.

2. Opportunity Cost

Every "yes" is actually a "no" to everything else you could do with that time or resource.

I noticed that top performers are hyperaware of this reality. They don't just evaluate options in isolation but consider what they're giving up by choosing one path over another.

3. Probabilistic Thinking

Average decision-makers think in black and white: "Will this work or not?"

Elite decision-makers think in probabilities: "Based on the evidence, what's the likelihood this will succeed? And what's my downside if it fails?"

Action Step: The next time you face a decision, apply at least one mental model before deciding. Write down your analysis using the model, even if it's just a few bullet points.

The Counterintuitive Power of Principles

The third pattern was perhaps the most surprising.

I expected to find that successful people adapt their decision-making to each unique situation. But I discovered the opposite.

The most effective decision-makers rely on a small set of principles that they apply consistently across different contexts.

Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, puts it bluntly: "Principles are ways of successfully dealing with reality to get what you want out of life."

By having clear principles, they eliminate the need to reinvent their decision process each time. This creates both better decisions and dramatically faster ones.

Here are three principles I've adopted from studying elite decision-makers:

1. The Regret Minimization Framework

When facing a difficult choice, I ask: "When I'm 80 years old, looking back on my life, which decision would I regret not making?"

This immediately cuts through short-term emotions and focuses on what genuinely matters.

2. The Hell Yes or No Principle

If a new opportunity doesn't generate an immediate, enthusiastic "Hell Yes!" then it's a "No."

This single principle has saved me countless hours pursuing mediocre opportunities at the expense of exceptional ones.

3. The First Principles Rule

When evaluating information, I ask: "Is this based on fundamental truths, or is it based on analogies, conventions, or authority?"

This has been transformative for cutting through noise and making decisions based on reality rather than perception.

Action Step: Draft 3-5 decision-making principles that align with your values. Write them down and review them before making any significant decision for the next 30 days.

The Time Horizon Advantage

The fourth pattern emerged when I noticed something unusual about how top performers consider time.

Average decision-makers optimize for the short term – immediate pleasures, quick wins, and instant gratification.

Good decision-makers think medium-term – months or a few years ahead.

But the truly exceptional think much further into the future while acting decisively in the present.

Jeff Bezos made decisions in Amazon's early days that only made sense on a 5-7 year time horizon, when most of his competitors were optimizing for the next quarter.

This longer time horizon creates an almost unfair advantage. While others chase short-term wins that often lead to long-term problems, the exceptional make short-term sacrifices that create massive long-term advantages.

Action Step: Before your next significant decision, explicitly ask: "How will I feel about this choice in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 years?" Write down your answers to each timeframe.

The Decision Environment Design

The final pattern was perhaps the most actionable: the deliberate design of decision environments.

Top performers understand that willpower is overrated. Instead of relying on discipline at the moment of decision, they design their environments to make good decisions easier and bad decisions harder.

Some practical examples I've implemented:

• I removed social media apps from my phone, requiring me to use a computer to access them

• I pre-schedule all my workouts with a trainer, removing the daily decision

• I automated my investment contributions to happen the day after I get paid

• I prepare important decisions when my energy is highest (morning for me)

These environmental design choices may seem small, but collectively, they dramatically improve decision quality without requiring constant willpower.

Action Step: Identify one recurring bad decision you tend to make. Then redesign your environment to make that decision at least 20% harder to execute.

TAKEAWAYS

• Focus on avoiding stupid decisions rather than trying to make brilliant ones

• Use mental models like inversion, opportunity cost, and probabilistic thinking

• Develop clear principles that can be applied consistently across different decisions

• Extend your time horizon to see opportunities others miss

• Design your environment to make good decisions easier and bad ones harder

• Elite decision-making is a skill that can be developed through deliberate practice

P.S. Important update: We're closing down our current products very soon. This is your last chance to secure them at their current price. I've been working on something brand new – my complete system for creating the cinematic content you see on Elevenstoic. Stay tuned for the announcement soon.

Your Better Self,

Richard, Founder of Elevenstoic & Lussiety